Friday, March 12, 2004

Okay, I've spent way too much time on this today, but I went to that little electoral map this morning and then decided to tally all of the states in the electoral college for elections dating back to 1856. Probably overkill there, but in my analysis with respect to the elections since about 1976, I'm thinking the states that Kerry should be focusing on are as follows...

From the so-called "swing" states:

Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio

From the "red" or Republican states:

North Carolina
Virginia

And "blue" or Democratic states to defend/watch out for counterattack:

Michigan
Pennsylvania

Here are the other swing states, according to the electoral map on John Edwards' site:

Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Louisiana
Montana
Tennessee
West Virginia

I'm not sure why Arizona is considered a swing state. They've voted Republican every time since 1952 with the exception of 1996. I guess maybe they're thinking that demographics are changing?

To me, Louisiana, Georgia, Montana and Arkansas look firmly in the "realignment" Republican category and Kerry shouldn't waste his time there. Florida's worth a shot, but I highly doubt it unless they can pin the Greenspan suggestions w/respect to Social Security on Bush. More likely is the culture war shit will convince enough of the geezers that Kerry's too liberal. But that's just my gut talking. Ohio and Missouri vis a vis jobs is a better strategy for Kerry.

Now, the remaining Republican states:

Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Mississippi
Nebraska
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Can you say "forget it?" The only reason I mention NC is if Kerry takes Edwards. As for Virginia, well, they have a Democratic governer, a first in a while apparently. It's a long shot but worth a try.

And the remaining Dem states?

California
Connecticut
Delaware
DC
Hawaii
Illinois
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

All of the above seem safe.

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