Thursday, July 15, 2004

Here are the state by state poll numbers for this week according to realclearpolitics. Again, absent from the polls on this website are: Alaska, Nebraska, North Dakota, Wyoming, Delaware, DC and Hawaii, but I think it's pretty clear that the first four will go to Bush and the last three to Kerry. For instance, Nebraska last voted Democratic in 1916, Wyoming last voted Dem in '64 and Hawaii only voted GOP in '68 and '84.

Since last week (I'm just going by the most recent poll according to the site), New Hampshire and Arkansas have moved over to the Bush side and Pennsylvania has moved to the Kerry side.
If the election were held on these results, here's the outcome:

Bush 261
Kerry 277

 
Here are the raw numbers....
 
For Bush:
 
New Hampshire +1 (4 electoral votes)
Arkansas +2 (6)
Missouri +2 (11)
Nevada +2.5 (5)
North Carolina +3 (15)
Ohio +4 (20)
Wisconsin +4 (10)
Colorado +5 (9)
Virginia +5 (13)
Louisiana +6 (9)
West Virginia +6 (5)
South Carolina +7 (8)
Tennessee +10 (11)
Georgia +11 (15)
Arizona +12 (10)
Kentucky +13 (8)
Alabama +14 (9)
Indiana +16 (11)
South Dakota +16 (3)
Texas +18 (34)
Kansas +20 (6)
Montana +20 (3)
Idaho +30 (4)
Mississippi +31(6)
Oklahoma +32 (7)
Utah +45 (5)
Nebraska +? (5)
Alaska +? (3)
North Dakota +? (3)
Wyoming +? (3)
 
For Kerry:
 
Maine +1 (4 electoral votes)
Florida +3 (27)
Michigan +3 (17)
Iowa +4 (7)
Minnesota +4.6 (10)
Pennsylvania +5 (21)
Washington +6.4 (11)
Oregon +6.6 (7)
New Mexico +7 (5)
California +8 (55)
New Jersey +10 (15)
Maryland +14 (10)
Vermont +15 (3)
Illinois +16 (21)
Connecticut +18 (7)
Rhode Island +24 (4)
New York +28 (31)
Massachusetts +29 (12)
Hawaii +? (4)
Delaware +? (3)
DC +? (3)
 
I'm not sure why all the newscasts get so caught up in the national average. That's irrelevant to the real story. So I will keep doing this each week until the election as a service to you, the reader.
 

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